When Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi told parliament that the situation around Taiwan posed an existential threat to Japan, Beijing responded with coercive measures. What happened next alarmed U.S. allies across the region: instead of calling Tokyo to offer support, President Trump phoned Xi Jinping.
Former Biden national security advisor Jake Sullivan recounted the episode on the World Class podcast at Stanford University. According to Sullivan, as reported by "Hvylya", Xi told Trump to "call the Japanese and tell them to cool it." Trump complied. "So in Japan right now, they read that as some lack of confidence that the U.S. will have their back," Sullivan said. He added that there is growing concern in Japanese policy circles "that they are going to have to make their own accommodation with China over time."
Sullivan also flagged a broader risk in Trump's approach to Beijing. He said the Chinese leadership is interested in getting Trump "to say something different about Taiwan than previous presidents have said. Something about peaceful reunification or opposing independence - some formula that moves the needle in their direction." Sullivan warned Trump "might be tempted to do that," with reverberating consequences for partners in Taiwan and allies across the region.
McMaster agreed that the failure to back Takaichi was a mistake. "It is the perception of weakness that is provocative to our adversaries," he said. He pointed to a contrasting signal: the $20 billion arms sale to Taiwan is now moving forward, and tracking the delivery of those capabilities is "a really important thing." But mixed messages undermine the deterrent effect that such sales are meant to provide.