Russia is maintaining a maximalist position in negotiations and believes it can sustain the war into 2027. The Kremlin views the ongoing negotiation process not as a path to peace but as "a vehicle for driving a wedge into the transatlantic alliance," wrote Dr Jack Watling, a RUSI analyst.
As "Hvylya" reports, citing an analytical commentary by RUSI, Moscow is convinced it can "achieve militarily what is on the table today through diplomacy."
The Kremlin perceives its leverage as building over time and will keep the negotiations going but "in essence string along the process." The White House, for its part, wants a ceasefire quickly to pave the path towards renewed economic engagement with Russia.
Meanwhile, Washington has halted meaningful military assistance to Kyiv, "even obstructing European purchases of US materiel through the PURL framework." Although the European defence industry is expanding production, Kyiv remains short of critical supplies.
The only way to force the Kremlin to reconsider is "significantly higher casualties or greater economic pain," Watling concluded. Unless Russia faces one of these factors, its aggression will continue.
For more context, see Kofman's analysis of why Putin can neither win nor stop.