A former insider from Viktor Orban's own party has found the Hungarian premier's weak spot: 20 billion euros in EU funds that Brussels froze over concerns about rule of law, public procurement, and corruption. Peter Magyar, once a Fidesz politician, has built his Tisza party's campaign around a simple argument - Orban's combative stance toward the EU is costing ordinary Hungarians real money.
Magyar's strategy, "Hvylya" reports, citing the Financial Times, has been to connect Hungary's rocky EU relations and the frozen funds directly to the country's stagnant economy and crumbling public services. With the rising cost of living squeezing household budgets, the argument resonates with voters who previously overlooked Orban's Brussels confrontations.
Magyar has also proven adept at social media - a domain where Fidesz once enjoyed near-total dominance through its allied media empire. His ability to reach voters directly has partially offset the ruling party's overwhelming advantage in traditional communications. The challenge for Tisza is whether this polling lead can survive a relentless campaign to discredit Magyar through pro-Orban outlets.
The stakes extend well beyond Hungary's borders. A Magyar victory would offer the prospect of reviving open democracy in a country that the European parliament has placed at the bottom of EU democratic standards. It would also remove one of the most persistent obstacles to EU support for Ukraine, potentially unblocking decision-making that Orban has stalled for years.
Critics warn, however, that the playing field remains tilted. Past Hungarian elections have been deemed "free but not fair" due to Fidesz's media dominance, and there are concerns the ruling party may escalate its tactics. Even a Tisza victory would leave intact the Fidesz network of loyalists embedded across Hungary's state institutions - a system that, as Poland's experience shows, takes years to dismantle.
Also read: how single-bid contracts for Orban's allies surged ahead of elections.