Five weeks into the U.S.-Iran war, the global energy market is feeling the full weight of Tehran's most powerful leverage: the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has closed the waterway to any vessel not explicitly authorized by Iran, sending Brent crude above $100 per barrel and rattling energy supply chains worldwide.
As defense analyst Bilal Y. Saab noted in his assessment for "Hvylya," executives at the world's most influential oil and gas companies are warning that this disruption may not be temporary. The strait handles roughly 20 percent of the world's oil traffic, making it one of the most consequential chokepoints in the global economy.
The price surge has put President Trump under mounting domestic political pressure. He has responded with threats to obliterate Iran's energy and water infrastructure if Tehran refuses to reopen the strait, while his advisors are reportedly negotiating with the Iranians on terms for ending the war. The gap between the rhetoric and the diplomacy suggests Washington has yet to find a workable approach.
The situation could deteriorate further. Iran has threatened to attack energy infrastructure in neighboring Gulf states — a move that would compound the supply disruption far beyond the strait itself. Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthi movement has entered the conflict and could resume targeting shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, another critical passage carrying 10 to 12 percent of global oil trade.
The irony of the proposed Kharg Island operation is that it aims to stabilize energy markets by seizing Iran's main oil export terminal. But analysts warn that Tehran's response — escalating against Gulf infrastructure and activating proxy forces — would almost certainly produce the opposite effect, driving prices even higher and extending the disruption indefinitely.
Earlier, "Hvylya" reported on how every Tomahawk fired at Iran weakens American deterrence elsewhere — and Beijing knows it.