The United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states are running a different calculation than Washington when it comes to Iran. While the US counts destroyed targets and killed commanders as success, Gulf leaders are calculating whether a wounded Iran becomes more or less dangerous. That warning comes from Jonny Gannon, a former CIA operative with 26 years of Middle East experience.
Gannon laid out the Gulf perspective in an opinion piece for the Financial Times. The UAE's leaders, he wrote, understand that when strikes stop and international attention fades, they will still face the consequences. Their concern extends beyond whether the Islamic republic survives to whether it survives in a state that makes it more dangerous, "Hvylya" reports.
A prolonged conflict would bring repeated missile and drone threats against Gulf infrastructure, disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and pressure on investor confidence in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Iran could also launch proxy or covert operations against Emirati targets. For economies built on stability and foreign investment, these outcomes threaten their core security model.
Gannon raised a threat closer to Washington's own interests. The US intelligence community will need to prepare for a cold war with Iran that could include lethal operations directed at American officials. This is not a hypothetical risk but a pattern Iran has followed before when cornered. Gulf states, meanwhile, have already begun reassessing the value of US military bases on their soil.
The former operative urged the US to resist expanding beyond President Donald Trump's stated war aims. The alternative - an open-ended campaign for regime change - risks triggering a truly regional conflict. Gulf allies should be closely consulted because they will live with the consequences long after the military phase ends.
"Hvylya" earlier reported on how Iran's proxy network turned from a shield into a fatal liability as the conflict reshaped regional alliances.