George Friedman, chairman of Geopolitical Futures, has explained why the destruction of Iran's political leadership and high command has not degraded the country's military capacity - because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was built to function without them.
On the Geopolitical Futures podcast, Friedman described the IRGC's "mosaic strategy" as a structure that anticipated exactly the kind of decapitation strikes the US has carried out, "Hvylya" reports.
"We destroyed the political system of Iran. That didn't weaken Iran. The IRGC took over," Friedman said. "Now if we knock out the high command of the IRGC, these mosaics will continue to operate." Each mosaic - a smaller operational area - is designed to function under the authority of a local commander, with built-in systems for collaboration on drone operations, even when central communications are severed.
Friedman noted that American intelligence had misjudged the relationship between Iran's political leadership and the IRGC. The US assumed that figures like Supreme Leader Khamenei and senior politicians constituted the real government. In practice, the IRGC is a "highly ideological, highly committed, quite capable, and well-armed" military force that operates with significant autonomy.
The key variable, Friedman argued, is not leadership but hardware. "The fundamental question in terms of Iran's ability to survive is just how many drones do they have. When will they use them up? Are they producing enough to replace them?" Russia is apparently providing Iran with satellite intelligence, mirroring what the West supplied to Ukraine - making the war's outcome dependent not on which side's leaders survive, but on which side's weapons last longer.
Earlier, "Hvylya" reported on how Iran-backed militias used drones immune to electronic jamming to strike a US base.