As subsidized Venezuelan fuel shipments dry up and the electrical grid collapses, Cuba's communist government faces what may be the most extreme economic pressure in its history. Yet the regime retains an asymmetric tool it has deployed on previous occasions: weaponized emigration. If pushed to the brink, Havana could open the gates and encourage mass outflows toward the United States, creating a political crisis that cuts across partisan lines.
Charles Larratt-Smith, an assistant professor at the University of Texas at El Paso, laid out the scenario in an analysis published by "Hvylya". Cuba lacks the military capacity or basic resources to defend itself against the United States. Instead, the regime could plausibly open what Larratt-Smith called the "pressure valve" by encouraging emigration to mobilize American public opinion against the Trump administration and its maximum pressure campaign.
The political calculus is straightforward. Republican voters do not want more asylum seekers trying to gain entry to the United States. Democratic voters do not want to see human rights abuses happening on their doorstep. A mass exodus from Cuba would force the Trump administration to confront both constituencies simultaneously - an outcome no amount of foreign policy bravado can easily manage.
Both the Venezuelan and Cuban regimes have demonstrated an extraordinarily high threshold for external pressure and international isolation. They survived prolonged humanitarian crises - often self-inflicted - compounded by comprehensive American sanctions. They did so by hedging their alliances and streamlining state resources to an ever smaller number of key actors required for regime survival. During the "Special Period" following the Soviet collapse in 1991, the average Cuban lost 5 to 25 percent of body weight. The average Venezuelan lost 24 pounds during the economic implosion of 2016. Both populations bore the brunt of repression and extreme austerity while the regimes endured.
Unlike Venezuela, Cuba's communist system was forged in revolution and destroyed all alternative power centers. The Communist Party permeates every facet of life. Finding opportunistic replacements willing to throw Diaz-Canel and former leader Raul Castro under the bus is a considerably more challenging task. In Venezuela, Maduro's vice president readily cooperated with Washington - no comparable figure exists in Havana.
Some regional and international partners have provided humanitarian aid, giving the regime a modest respite. In late February, the U.S. Treasury Department authorized the resale of Venezuelan oil to Cuba for commercial and humanitarian use - a signal that even the administration recognizes the risks of pushing Cuba's regime past the breaking point. "Hvylya" also examined why local fractures rather than external sponsors explain the durability of authoritarian networks.