Immediately following the capture and replacement of Nicolas Maduro with his Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, the Trump administration claimed stewardship of Venezuela's vast oil reserves, framing the move as part of a three-phase plan to stabilize the country, revive oil production, and oversee a democratic transition. Three months later, American energy companies have shown little appetite for the venture.
Writing in "Hvylya", Charles Larratt-Smith, an assistant professor at the University of Texas at El Paso, analyzed why the strategy faces fundamental obstacles. Venezuela's oil infrastructure is decrepit after years of underinvestment and mismanagement. American energy companies have balked at investing in an autocratic country with a track record of expropriating foreign assets. The current American regulation of Venezuelan oil sales does not address the country's structural economic problems, further complicating any stabilization or democratic transition.
The situation draws a sharp contrast with a previous Venezuelan political transition. In 1908, Vice President Juan Vicente Gomez deposed President Cipriano Castro with support from Washington. Gomez opened the country's oil reserves for foreign investment, and during his 27-year dictatorship, American oil revenues modernized Venezuela while the United States secured a stable supplier in a strategically important region. Larratt-Smith argued that despite similar circumstances, this time neither country is likely to benefit from the renewed relationship.
Paradoxically, the administration's own military campaign against Iran has driven global oil prices above 100 dollars per barrel, making Venezuelan oil more attractive in theory. Yet the estimated costs, human expertise, and time required to revive production to previous record levels - coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the post-Maduro government - have dissuaded investors. Trump's three-phase plan assumes that financial stability is required to facilitate a democratic transition, but no energy company wants to invest in an enterprise overseen by an odious regime.
The administration's attempt to frame Maduro's capture as a historic foreign policy victory has produced mixed reactions at home. Recent polls show near parity between those who approve and disapprove of the military operation, while a clear majority lack confidence in Trump's ability to manage Venezuela going forward. The successor regime maintains total control of the country, the average Venezuelan's living conditions remain abysmal, and Trump has sidelined Venezuela's democratic opposition - a combination that makes the three-phase plan look more like wishful thinking than a workable strategy. Earlier, "Hvylya" reported on how the U.S. defense industry sits idle during wartime because no funded orders have materialized.