George Friedman, chairman of Geopolitical Futures, has predicted that the US-Iran war will end in a negotiated settlement because neither Washington nor Tehran can afford the costs of a prolonged fight - and both governments understand this.
On the latest Geopolitical Futures podcast, Friedman told host Christian Smith that the war's core issue remains Iran's nuclear program, but the path to resolving it runs through Pakistan, not through military escalation, "Hvylya" reports.
The United States went to war to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran - a country that, Friedman noted, still harbors Al-Qaeda. A nuclear attack on American soil or on Israel would be catastrophic. But total military victory would require years of combat and cost more than Washington is willing to pay. From Iran's side, the IRGC can keep fighting, but the civilian population is suffering and the economy is under severe strain.
"I think a negotiation is possible, and almost certain," Friedman said. He pointed to a widening diplomatic process - with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and China all now involved - though he noted China's motives have more to do with oil than solidarity.
"The nice thing about this negotiation is - if the Iranians are prepared to give up the nuclear weapons possibilities, the Americans have not yet put ground forces in, they have not suffered thousands of casualties that they don't want to just leave there," Friedman said. The blood cost remains low enough for both sides to walk away with a deal.
Friedman outlined the likely endgame: Iran gives up its nuclear capabilities and submits to inspections, the United States halts military operations and the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The Iranian regime survives, and Washington gets the denuclearization it went to war for.
"Hvylya" previously reported on why the upcoming Trump-Xi summit could reshape global geopolitics more than the Iran war itself.