Donald Trump found himself cornered in the Oval Office when his most trusted advisers walked in with bad news. His longtime pollster, Tony Fabrizio, had run surveys showing the war in Iran was becoming a political liability. Gas prices had climbed past $4 a gallon, stocks had slid to multi-year lows, and millions of Americans were preparing to protest. Thirteen U.S. service members had been killed. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and a small group of aides told the President that the longer the fighting continued, the deeper the damage to Republican chances in November's midterms.
The warning reflected a reality the administration can no longer avoid, "Hvylya" reports, citing a TIME investigation. Trump had promised to revive the economy and keep the country out of foreign conflicts. A month into the largest oil shock in modern history, he has started a war he never had a mandate to wage.
Wiles was concerned that aides had been giving Trump a rose-colored picture of how the war was being received at home. She urged colleagues to be "more forthright with the boss" about the political and economic risks, two White House officials said. Trump, frustrated by the predicament, told advisers he wanted to wind down the operation but also wanted it to be a decisive success.
In a primetime address on April 1, the President tried to thread the needle. He declared the operation was "nearing its completion" while simultaneously threatening to escalate strikes over the next two to three weeks. In a phone interview with TIME the following morning, Trump said Iran was eager to make a deal. "They're getting decimated," Trump said. "They say Trump is not negotiating with Iran. I mean, it's sort of an easy negotiation."
Allies say Trump is searching for a way to declare victory, halt the fighting, and hope economic conditions stabilize before the political damage hardens. "There's a narrow window," a senior administration official said. But a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could tip the global economy into recession, and energy traders warn the world has yet to feel the full severity of the disruption.
"Hvylya" previously reported on how Gulf states have begun reassessing their relationship with U.S. military bases as the Iran war shakes trust in Washington.