Amos Yadlin, former head of Israeli Military Intelligence, and strategic affairs expert Avner Golov have laid out a sweeping post-war blueprint for Iran in a new Foreign Affairs essay. Despite devastating strikes on Iran's military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and senior leadership throughout 2025 and 2026, they write, the campaign will fail if Washington and Jerusalem do not lock in their gains with a verification and enforcement regime.

Washington must maintain blockades and no-fly zones until Tehran meets a list of demands, "Hvylya" reports. Those demands include dismantling the nuclear program, disbanding proxy networks, ceasing support for terrorist organizations, abandoning efforts to export revolutionary Islamist ideology, and recognizing Israel's existence and the sovereignty of its Arab neighbors. Yadlin and Golov published their analysis in the May/June 2026 issue of Foreign Affairs.

Yadlin and Golov stress that the recent conflict was not a war of choice. Iran declared war on the United States when regime affiliates stormed the US embassy in 1979 and held 66 diplomats hostage for over a year. Tehran has since killed thousands of American troops directly and through proxies. Even in its weakened state after joint US-Israeli strikes, the regime still menaced Washington's core interests in the region.

Yadlin and Golov push back against American critics who say the campaign was fought primarily at Israel's behest. Those critics contend it squandered US resources on a problem that mainly threatens Haifa, Jerusalem, and Tel Aviv. Yadlin and Golov counter that by weakening the radical regime, the conflict has given more pragmatic Iranian officials a chance to gain influence while boosting the relevance of domestic opposition forces.

The essay also calls for active support of Iranian opposition figures seeking regime change. Washington and Jerusalem should use covert operations, economic pressure, and information warfare to deepen internal divisions within the ruling establishment. They acknowledge that regime change is ultimately the task of the Iranian people but maintain that external conditions can and should be shaped to make it possible.

Earlier, "Hvylya" explored what a Foreign Affairs analyst identified as the most probable outcome of Iran's power vacuum.