William Burns has identified Russia and China as the two biggest winners of the ongoing US-led war against Iran, arguing that the conflict has handed both adversaries strategic advantages Washington did not anticipate when it launched the operation five weeks ago.

"Hvylya" covers Burns' assessment from his April 1 interview with Foreign Affairs.

For Russia, Burns said, the Iran war has been "a lifeline." Higher energy prices have delivered more revenue to Moscow, while diminished US military inventories - particularly air defense interceptors that Europeans want to acquire and pass on to Ukraine - have eased the pressure Putin was beginning to feel. "At a moment when he was beginning to feel genuine economic pressure and quite significant battlefield losses, well over a million killed and wounded on the battlefield, this is a lifeline," Burns said.

For China, the calculus is simpler but no less consequential. "Every week, every month that the United States is preoccupied in the Gulf or in the Middle East is a week or a month or a year in which the United States is less focused on the Indo-Pacific," Burns explained. Both Beijing and Moscow benefit from Washington's attention being drawn away from the regions that matter most to their long-term strategies.

Burns said Putin is "quite cocky right now" and convinced that time is on his side, believing he can grind down the Ukrainians until the US loses interest. The former CIA director pushed back against this reading. He argued there are ways to puncture Putin's hubris: Russia's economy is struggling, its military has vulnerabilities, and Ukrainian forces have offset Russian advantages through drone technology and electronic warfare.

"Strategically, the stakes are higher in the war in Ukraine than they are in a war of choice against Iran right now," Burns said, warning that a poor outcome in Ukraine would set a precedent for European security and for the Indo-Pacific that the United States would regret for decades.

"Hvylya" also explored how every missile fired at Iran chips away at US deterrence in other theaters.