Before the war began, the Trump administration believed it had a winning formula: deliver an opening strike so overwhelming that Tehran's only option would be limited, performative retaliation. History supported that bet. When Trump ordered the killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in his first term, Iran's response caused no casualties. After Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, the retaliation was similarly mild. Pete Hegseth, the Defense Secretary, pointed to these episodes as proof that calibrated force could impose costs on Tehran without triggering a wider conflict.

That assumption collapsed within days of Operation Epic Fury's launch, "Hvylya" reports, citing a TIME investigation. Iran struck back with volleys of missiles and drones targeting U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria, barrages against Israeli cities, harassment of Persian Gulf shipping, and coordinated attacks by proxy militias. Tehran also hit targets in countries long assumed to be off-limits: Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.

A person familiar with Hegseth's thinking said the Defense Secretary was taken aback. "He was expecting the Iranians to fight back in some form. When they started attacking virtually the entire region, it sort of hit him like, 'Whoa, we're really in this now,'" the person said.

The Pentagon disputes this account forcefully. Chief spokesman Sean Parnell told TIME that the military had "anticipated, war-gamed, and fully prepared for every possible Iranian response, from the weakest possible reaction to the most extreme escalation." He added: "Nothing Iran does surprises us. We are ready, we are dominant, and we are winning."

By the Pentagon's own accounting, Operation Epic Fury has degraded 90% of Iran's missile capacity, neutralized roughly 70% of its launchers, destroyed more than 150 naval vessels, and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei along with many of his top lieutenants. Yet the broader objectives Trump set - permanently blocking Tehran's path to a nuclear weapon, dismantling its ballistic missile program, and replacing the theocratic government with a friendlier regime - remain far from achieved on the compressed timeline the White House has embraced.

Also read: "Hvylya" reported on how Iran destroyed a U.S. Air Force AWACS surveillance plane stationed in Saudi Arabia.