It took just two weeks of combat in Iran for the first alarms to sound about American munitions. Robert Kelly, a professor of international relations at Pusan National University, warned that the rapid depletion of U.S. missile and missile-interceptor stockpiles carries consequences far beyond the Middle East - particularly for the one adversary Washington cannot afford to underestimate.
As "Hvylya" reports, Kelly wrote in 19fortyfive.com that the world now "unequivocally" lives in a missile age, a shift the war in Ukraine had already demonstrated. Both Russia and Ukraine turned to "heavy use of cheap, ubiquitous airpower, including drones and low-cost missiles," and the Iran conflict is accelerating the same pattern.
The crux of the problem is that the United States relies on what Kelly calls "exquisite" systems - platforms that are "expensive, highly capable" and "hard to mass-produce." The Patriot-3 interceptor costs nearly $4 million per unit. A modern drone typically costs less than $100,000. That ratio means every exchange depletes American stockpiles at a pace the defense industry cannot match.
In a direct conflict with China, the inventory problem would be exponentially worse. Kelly noted that against Iran, the United States enjoys air dominance and can run traditional bombing missions. Against China, it would not have air supremacy. Conflict in that contested airspace would require missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles in far greater numbers than what the Iran theater demands.
China, Kelly argued, has likely concluded that its inventories of cheap, mass-produced aerial platforms dwarf America's high-end stockpiles - a realization that shifts the strategic calculus in Beijing's favor.
Earlier, "Hvylya" reported on how Zelensky pitched Ukraine's drone technology as a strategic commodity during the Gulf crisis.