China faces a demographic crisis unlike anything in modern history: it will become the first country in the world to grow old before it grows rich. The one-child policy that the Chinese Communist Party enforced for more than a generation has produced consequences that no amount of economic planning can reverse.
Writing in Foreign Affairs, Yale historian Odd Arne Westad has identified this as one of two existential threats to the Chinese economy, "Hvylya" reports. The numbers are staggering. In 2023, China's population declined for the first time - by about 2.5 million people. By 2050, the country will have lost at least 200 million people, and more than 40 percent of those who remain will be over 60.
For comparison, the United States is projected to have 30 percent of its population over 60 by 2050. India will have only 20 percent. China's aging trajectory dwarfs both.
The demographic time bomb coincides with the end of China's hypergrowth era. The last year China posted more than ten percent annual growth was 2010. By 2019, it had slowed to 6 percent. In 2024, some estimates put actual growth between 2 and 3 percent. Youth unemployment and unfulfilled expectations have skyrocketed as the economy decelerates.
The other major domestic threat, Westad wrote, comes from the Chinese Communist Party's deep suspicion of private enterprise. Over the past few years, the CCP has moved against top Chinese companies under the banner of antitrust and data security. "But there is no doubt that the real purpose is to bring big private companies under party control," the historian argued. Arrests and interrogations of leading business figures have already driven many of them to spend more time abroad.
Read more: "Hvylya" reported on how China used the Trump-Xi trade calm to send a chilling signal to Asian allies.