Russia's position as the dominant external security partner in the Sahel is being challenged - not by the West, but by Turkey, China and the United Arab Emirates. A new analysis by Frederic Wehrey and Andrew Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment, published in Foreign Affairs, documents how all three powers are offering Sahelian rulers things they consider "more reliable and more affordable" than Russian mercenaries.
Turkey poses the most direct challenge to Russia's market share, the authors note, as cited by "Hvylya". Presenting itself as a "third way" between the West and Russia, Ankara has centered its pitch on inexpensive but effective Bayraktar drones and associated training. Since 2022, regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have all acquired Bayraktar models capable of both surveillance and strike, viewing them as more flexible counterinsurgency tools than foreign fighters on the ground.
Turkish security companies have also muscled in on terrain long dominated by Russian actors, providing training to elite units tasked with guarding Mali's leadership. In Niger, Ankara signed intelligence cooperation agreements with the junta in July 2024. But the arrangement proved short-lived: in the spring of 2025, Niamey terminated its signals intelligence partnerships with both Turkey and Russia, citing the poor quality of their intercept systems.
China has been expanding its footprint through a different model - deploying private security contractors to guard Chinese-owned energy and mining projects, including Niger's troubled Agadem-Seme oil pipeline. Beijing links arms sales, police training and surveillance systems with infrastructure financing, offering an integrated package that Russian companies generally lack the financial resources to match.
The UAE has added another layer, signing a security agreement with Mali and supplying armored vehicles to Burkina Faso. Wehrey and Weiss note that the Emirates have invested more than $500 million in Mali's gold-mining sector and serve as a key hub for refining and selling Sahelian gold obtained by Russian networks. While none of these outside players are trying to replicate Moscow's model of deploying large numbers of troops, their combined presence gives Sahelian regimes growing room to hedge and play external partners against each other.
Also read: "Hvylya" analyzed why Europe fears a world caught between three competing great powers.