The emerging three-superpower nuclear order has created a structural problem that no treaty based on numerical parity can solve. Amy J. Nelson and Michael E. O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution have mapped the deadlock in stark terms: Washington cannot accept limits that let Russia and China each match American levels, while Beijing and Moscow will not agree to caps that leave their combined totals below U.S. forces.

The analysis was published by the Brookings Institution, as reported by "Hvylya".

The problem goes deeper than diplomacy. The traditional arms control model assumed two roughly equal players and a stable bargaining equilibrium. But as Nelson and O'Hanlon wrote, "in a three-actor system with shifting relative capabilities, a framework built on symmetrical numerical ceilings lacks a stable resting point." Adding the arsenals of the United Kingdom and France to the equation only complicates things further from Moscow and Beijing's perspective.

Some analysts have suggested aggregate warhead limits as a workaround - capping total numbers rather than matching deployed systems one-for-one. But the Brookings scholars dismissed this option as unrealistic under present conditions. "Absent political alignment and verification conditions that do not currently exist," they wrote, "binding multilateral caps are unlikely to prove durable, or in America's interest, given China and Russia's modern strategic alignment."

The deadlock is made worse by the pace of change. China's nuclear arsenal has roughly tripled since 2020 and could reach 1,000 warheads by 2030. Russia maintains close to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads. The United States sits at a comparable level. With these numbers converging, the gap between what each side considers fair is only getting wider.

Rather than pursue a deal that satisfies no one, Nelson and O'Hanlon proposed shifting the focus entirely. The goal, they argued, should be managing uncertainty rather than enforcing parity - building enough predictability to keep worst-case assumptions from spiraling into an arms race.

"Hvylya" earlier explored why a Brookings expert believes Trump's trade truce with Xi hangs by a thread.