Ukraine Risks Running Out of Defense Funds Within Two Months as Western Aid Stalls

Ukraine is at risk of depleting its defense budget for the war against Russian aggression within the next two months. Hvylya, citing Bloomberg, reports that a critical situation has emerged due to a simultaneous impact of several factors that have disrupted the receipt of tens of billions of euros from international donors.

According to Ukrainian and foreign officials, Kyiv's current budget reserves will only last until June. While Western aid has ensured the country's resilience for over four years of the full-scale invasion, support mechanisms have now faltered.

Among the primary obstacles, the publication highlights Hungary's veto on a 90-billion-euro European Union loan, difficulties with the IMF program, and the stalling of NATO weaponry initiatives. In the worst-case scenario, the National Bank of Ukraine may have to print money for the Ministry of Finance to pay military salaries and maintain public sector operations. NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyi has warned of such a development.

The situation is further complicated by external factors: Russia is reaping windfall profits from rising oil prices driven by the war in Iran. This conflict is also diverting Washington's resources and attention. Following Donald Trump's return to the White House, the United States has effectively ceased direct aid, shifting the financial burden onto Europe.

Within the EU, a political deadlock has emerged. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has blocked loans to Ukraine until Kyiv resumes the transit of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline. This issue is unlikely to be resolved at least until Hungary's parliamentary elections in April. Volodymyr Zelensky has characterized Budapest's actions as blackmail, warning that the military will face funding shortfalls for air defense systems and drone production.

Simultaneously, Kyiv is grappling with internal challenges. To unlock IMF tranches, parliament must pass tax legislation amendments, which has sparked a political standoff. Furthermore, NATO allies are reluctant to allocate funds for the American weaponry procurement program (PURL), despite Ukraine's $15 billion requirement in this area for the current year.

The total volume of external assistance needed by Ukraine for 2026 has reached $52 billion. Danylo Hetmantsev, head of the relevant parliamentary committee, stated that if the financial crisis persists, the country could face a "financial tragedy" as early as April.