The coalition fighting Iran faces what a new RUSI analysis calls a "magazine abyss" - a point where key munition categories run dry while cheaper alternatives cannot fill the gap. The most alarming finding: the U.S. military is approximately a month or less from exhausting its stocks of ATACMS and PrSM ground-attack missiles and THAAD interceptors.
Israel faces an even tighter timeline, as reported by "Hvylya". According to the analysis by Macdonald Amoah, Morgan Bazilian, and Lieutenant Colonel Jahara Matisek, Israeli Arrow interceptor missiles are likely to be completely expended by the end of March. The war could proceed with other weapons, but that would mean accepting greater risk for aircraft and tolerating more missile and drone "leakers" damaging forces and infrastructure.
The true danger, the authors argue, is not the total volume of munitions fired but the uneven rate of depletion. Some inventories remain deep and scalable. Others - particularly long-range interceptors and precision strike weapons - are nearing exhaustion. This imbalance is what makes the situation critical rather than merely expensive.
What makes the depletion dangerous is that no amount of cheaper munitions can compensate for the loss of high-end interceptors. The coalition cannot substitute volume ammunition for the specialized weapons needed to defeat ballistic missiles or engage targets at long range. And as Iran continues to damage radars and satellite terminals - at least a dozen have been hit so far - even the remaining interceptors become less effective, with crews resorting to firing 10 or 11 rounds at a single incoming missile.
Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger reinforced the warning on March 19, saying that global stockpiles are "empty or nearly empty." If the war continues another month, Papperger added, "we nearly have no missiles available." The precariousness of these "empty bins" may explain why President Trump has already suggested winding down the Iran campaign. Replacing what has been spent in 16 days could take years.
Earlier, "Hvylya" reported on how oil prices dropped sharply after Trump announced a pause in military operations against Iran.