The United States' military involvement in Iran is actively undermining its capacity to compete with China during what may be the most consequential window of strategic calm in the bilateral relationship, "Hvylya" reports, citing a new Foreign Affairs analysis by Brookings Institution fellow Ryan Hass.
Hass, a former NSC director for China who served from 2013 to 2017, writes that Washington is once more spending heavily on a foreign military campaign while running growing deficits at home. To take advantage of the current period of fragile stability with Beijing, he argues, "Washington will need to wind down its military operations in Iran and refocus on a more consequential national imperative: rebuilding capacity to compete with China."
The Iran conflict has already disrupted Trump's diplomatic calendar. The presidential summit with Xi, originally scheduled for March 31 in Beijing, was delayed at Trump's request because of the war. But the larger damage, according to Hass, is strategic: Washington needs to "avoid costly conflicts that drain national power" and instead channel resources into securing supply chains, speeding up industrial production, and pushing forward innovation policies.
Hass lists a growing number of challenges confronting the administration - including Gaza, Iran, Ukraine, and Venezuela - alongside rising domestic pressures around affordability and immigration. With such a full plate, he writes, it stands to reason that Trump would want to reduce volatility in relations with China. But wanting calm and using it productively are two different things.
The Trump administration should also continue pressing allies and partners to take on more of their own defense burden to free up U.S. resources for deterrence against China, Hass argues - though he notes that such a redirection "would also require Trump to concentrate less on Greenland, Iran, or Venezuela." China, meanwhile, is using this same period to narrow its vulnerabilities, accelerate technological innovation, and lock in its centrality to the global economy.
Also read: "Strategic Malpractice": Why Trump's Iran War Lacks the One Thing Every Wartime President Needs.
