Iran's ability to project military power through ballistic missiles and drones has collapsed at a pace that reveals the scale of damage inflicted by Operation Epic Fury, according to a defense analyst who has advised intelligence agencies in multiple countries. Publicly available data shows Iranian ballistic missile launches fell from 350 on February 28 to roughly 25 by March 14 - a drop of more than 90 percent.

The analysis by Muhanad Seloom, published in Al Jazeera, presents the case that the US-Israeli campaign is achieving systematic degradation of Iran's arsenal, "Hvylya" reports.

Drone launches tell the same story: from more than 800 on Day 1 to about 75 on Day 15. The figures, drawn from both US and Iranian military statements, "differ in detail but converge on the trajectory," Seloom noted. According to some reports, 80 percent of Iran's capacity to strike Israel has been eliminated, with hundreds of missile launchers rendered inoperable.

The campaign moved through two distinct phases. The first suppressed Iran's air defenses, decapitated its command and control, and degraded launch infrastructure. By March 2, US Central Command announced local air superiority over western Iran and Tehran, achieved without the confirmed loss of a single American or Israeli combat aircraft. Iran's air defenses have been suppressed to the point where the US is now flying nonstealth B-1 bombers over Iranian airspace - "a decision that signals near-total confidence in air dominance," Seloom wrote.

The second phase, now under way, targets Iran's defense industrial base: missile production facilities, dual-use research centers and the underground complexes where remaining stockpiles are stored. "This is not aimless bombing," Seloom argued. "It is a methodical campaign to ensure that what has been destroyed cannot be rebuilt."

Iran now faces a tightening dilemma. Firing remaining missiles exposes launchers that are promptly destroyed. Conserving them forfeits the ability to impose costs. Launch data suggests Tehran is rationing its remaining capacity for politically timed salvoes rather than sustaining operational tempo - a pattern Seloom characterized as "a force managing decline, not projecting strength."

Also read: Draining the Arsenal: How the Iran War Depletes Weapons Ukraine Desperately Needs.