Hezbollah resuming attacks on Israel, Iraqi militias striking US bases, Houthis issuing threats in the Red Sea - critics have cited these developments as the clearest evidence of US-Israeli strategic failure. But a defense analyst who has spent his academic career studying how states authorize proxy violence has argued the opposite: the attacks reveal a command network in its death throes.

Muhanad Seloom, who has worked for the US Department of State and advised defense and intelligence agencies in multiple countries, laid out his assessment in Al Jazeera, as "Hvylya" reports.

Seloom's research identifies four layers of control in Iran's proxy architecture: strategic legitimation, operational coordination, financial-logistical distribution and deniability calibration. The current campaign, he argued, has disrupted all four simultaneously. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei "eliminated the apex of the authorization pyramid." His son Mojtaba's appointment as successor - a dynastic transfer without precedent in the Islamic Republic - "signals institutional fragility, not continuity."

The IRGC command structure has been decapitated at multiple levels, with the acting defense minister among those killed. When proxies launch retaliatory attacks, Seloom wrote, this is evidence of "predelegated response authority" - what a centralized command system activates when it anticipates its own destruction. "Predelegation is a sign of desperation, not strength. It means the centre can no longer coordinate."

The attacks will continue, Seloom predicted, but they will become "increasingly uncoordinated, strategically incoherent and politically costly for the host states where these groups operate." Hezbollah is weaker than at any point since 2006, degraded by more than a year of Israeli operations before this campaign began. The Houthis possess independent capability but lack the command integration with Tehran that transforms militia activity into strategic effect.

Qatar and Bahrain are arresting IRGC operatives. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are intercepting Iranian drones over their own territory. The regional environment that sustained Iran's proxy architecture - the grudging tolerance by Gulf states fearful of Iranian retaliation - is being replaced by active hostility.

Also read: Friedman: US Destroyed Iran's Government but Missed the Real Power Behind It.