The countries ringing the Baltic Sea have pulled off one of the fastest energy divorces in modern history - ending all imports of Russian crude oil, gas, coal, and electricity within roughly two years of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But as a comprehensive PISM report published in March 2026 makes clear, breaking free from one form of dependency has created another, potentially more dangerous kind.
As "Hvylya" reports, citing the Polish Institute of International Affairs, Russia accounted for 57 percent of imported gas and 35 percent of crude oil and petroleum product imports to the Baltic Sea Region in 2021 (excluding Germany). By 2024, hydrocarbon imports from Russia had "ceased entirely." The transition was enabled by infrastructure built in previous years - the Baltic Pipe, the GIPL interconnector, LNG terminals in Swinoujscie and Klaipeda - and new assets commissioned after the invasion, including FSRU terminals in Lubmin and Inkoo.
The result is that the Baltic Sea has become "the primary import route for energy commodities for the entire Central and Eastern European region, including Ukraine." In Poland, dependence on Baltic-based transport routes now exceeds 48 percent of domestic energy consumption - 78 percent for gas and 90 percent for oil - and is projected to reach 60 percent by 2040. New supply partnerships have been established primarily with the United States, the Netherlands, Canada, and Norway.
This concentration of energy flows through Baltic maritime routes is precisely what makes the region vulnerable. Since October 2023, Russia has used its "shadow fleet" to damage 11 undersea cables and pipelines in the Baltic Sea. The PISM report warns that while Russia "has lost the ability to exert direct leverage over the region, such as by cutting off oil and gas supplies, it will continue to create an uncertain maritime environment" that complicates new investments, trade flows, and energy deliveries.
The energy transition to renewables adds another layer of Baltic Sea dependence. The basin holds one of the EU's highest offshore wind potentials, estimated at over 90 gigawatts. Regional countries committed to 19.6 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, though some projects have since been suspended or canceled. Cost increases of approximately 10 percent between 2021 and 2024 have been driven partly by "higher spending on physical and cyber security due to growing threats from Russia."
The PISM researchers recommend that regional states accelerate the development of diversified import infrastructure, strengthen national storage capacities, and push forward with low-emission power generation. They also call for regional contingency planning including rationing frameworks, emergency capacities, and solidarity mechanisms for rapid re-routing of energy volumes in the event of disruption - recognizing that the very success of energy diversification has made Baltic maritime security a matter of survival for the entire Central European economy.
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