The Trump administration's Global Posture Review has signaled a planned reduction of the US military presence in Europe by approximately 9,000 troops - from 85,000 to 76,000 - at precisely the moment when Baltic and Nordic intelligence services assess Russia will need just three to five years to mount credible offensive operations against NATO's northeastern flank. The Polish Institute of International Affairs identified this convergence as one of the most dangerous developments for Baltic Sea Region security in its March 2026 report.
As "Hvylya" reports, citing the PISM analysis, the US drawdown has already begun. In April 2025, the American military handed responsibility for protecting the Rzeszow-Jasionka airport - the main logistics hub for Western military aid to Ukraine - to NATO. The US contingent in Romania was subsequently cut from 1,700 to roughly 900-1,000 soldiers. In early 2026, the Department of War announced a gradual withdrawal from 30 NATO Centres of Excellence and reduced US involvement in Alliance structures responsible for special operations and intelligence.
The restructuring extends to NATO's command architecture. In February 2026, several previously American-led NATO commands were "Europeanized" - the UK took over Joint Force Command Norfolk, Italy assumed JFC Naples, and Germany and Poland will share rotational command of JFC Brunssum. The US retains leadership of all three theater-level commands but has taken on new responsibility for Allied Maritime Command while maintaining the Allied Land and Air Commands.
The PISM researchers warn this shift "could be interpreted by Russia as a gradual weakening of US security guarantees and its willingness to fulfill its obligations under Article 5." They assess that if NATO is perceived as "politically divided," it could prompt Russia to "test the Alliance's solidarity by escalating hybrid activities or direct military confrontation." The latest US National Defense Strategy explicitly states that European allies should bear greater responsibility for defending the continent, with Washington prioritizing the Indo-Pacific as the key arena of competition with China.
For the Baltic states, the stakes are existential. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania lack strategic depth and sufficient resources for self-defense. Their security model has historically relied on the certainty of American reinforcement. The report notes that to partially compensate, the Baltic states and Poland have withdrawn from the Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel mines and launched major border fortification programs - the "Eastern Shield" and "Baltic Defence Line."
The PISM analysts conclude that European NATO members must accelerate their own military buildup to 5 percent of GDP as declared at the 2025 Hague summit, while developing interoperability through large-scale exercises. They also suggest the EU consider launching a coordinated maritime presence in the Baltic and North Seas to build military advantage over Russia independently of NATO decision-making processes.
Also read: Trump Declares US Needs No Help From NATO or Allies Against Iran.