Iran's decision to close the Strait of Hormuz - its most visible retaliatory card - has turned into a self-inflicted wound that accelerates Tehran's isolation with each passing day, a defense analyst has argued. About 90 percent of Iran's own oil exports pass through Kharg Island and then the strait, meaning the blockade cuts off the country's primary revenue source.
The assessment comes from Muhanad Seloom, a security researcher who has advised defense and intelligence agencies in multiple countries, "Hvylya" reports, citing his analysis published by Al Jazeera.
China, Tehran's largest remaining economic partner, cannot receive Iranian crude while the strait remains shut. "Every day the blockade continues, Iran severs its own economic lifeline and alienates the one major power that has consistently shielded it at the United Nations," Seloom wrote. The closure, in his view, does not just damage the global economy - it strips Iran of its last diplomatic cover.
The economic pain from the blockade is undeniable. Oil prices have surged, a record 400 million barrels of oil have been released from global reserves, and Gulf states face drone and missile strikes on their energy infrastructure. US Senator Chris Murphy has called the situation evidence that Trump misjudged Iran's capacity to retaliate.
But Seloom argued that this framing inverts the strategic logic. The naval assets Iran needs to sustain the blockade - fast-attack boats, drones, mines, shore-based antiship missiles - are being degraded daily. Its naval bases at Bandar Abbas and Chahbahar have been severely damaged. The real question, he wrote, is not whether the strait reopens but "whether Iran retains any naval capacity to contest it."
Seloom described the Hormuz closure as a "wasting asset" - always Iran's strongest card, but one that loses value the moment it is played. The operational trajectory, he argued, points toward a strait that no longer needs escorted tanker convoys because the adversary has lost the means to threaten them.
Also read: Friedman Warns Global Oil Reserves Will Buy Only Weeks, Not a Solution.