Beijing's primary strategic prize from the current period of calm with Washington is not economic relief but an opportunity to drive a wedge between the United States and its Asian partners, "Hvylya" reports, citing a Foreign Affairs analysis by Brookings Institution fellow Ryan Hass.
Hass, a former NSC director for China and Taiwan, writes that Chinese officials plan to use "Trump's preoccupation with his relationship with Xi and with calming tensions to send a signal to U.S. partners in Asia that they should not depend upon the United States for their security." The message to Tokyo, Taipei, and other capitals, he argues, will be that "Trump cares more about his relationship with China than he does about them."
The signal is reinforced by Trump's own rhetoric and policy shifts. In the second half of 2025, the president moved from escalation to praising Xi, describing China as a peer of the United States, and deemphasizing sensitive issues. Instead of signaling resolve to defend Taiwan, Hass notes, Trump "took to acknowledging the importance that China places on the island." He also appeared willing to subordinate tensions over "China's bullying of U.S. allies" to secure near-term benefits such as Chinese purchases of U.S. soybean exports.
For Xi, a largely ceremonial Trump visit that reaffirms a shared commitment to keep the bilateral economic relationship steady and avoid flare-ups - particularly over Taiwan - would count as a win, according to Hass. "The status quo is tolerable for Beijing," he writes. Plans for the two leaders to meet several more times this year make such ceremonialism even more likely.
Even as Xi would prefer that Washington relax its tariffs, export controls, investment restrictions, and military presence along China's periphery, the Chinese leader does not feel a need to make major concessions to secure such relief, the Brookings analysis concludes.
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