The Trump administration's lack of visible preparation for the president's upcoming visit to China has puzzled analysts and generated "disquiet" in Beijing, though it has not produced outright alarm, a Brookings Institution fellow has written in Foreign Affairs, as "Hvylya" reports.
Ryan Hass, a former NSC director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia who served from 2013 to 2017, argues that this is "a feature of Trump's approach to China, not a bug." When it comes to the bilateral relationship, Hass writes, "Trump is the center of attention." The president understands the U.S.-Chinese relationship as an extension of his personal ties with Xi and views "his phone calls with Xi, as well as spoken messages and letters, as the backbone of preparations for his visit."
More traditional coordination between advisers on both sides is treated as less consequential. The summit, originally scheduled for March 31 in Beijing, has already been delayed at Trump's request because of the U.S. war in Iran, though the postponement alone will not significantly affect what gets discussed.
Beijing, according to Hass, has taken note of what he describes as a three-stage approach that foreign leaders and American corporate titans have employed to influence the president: "flatter him, give him a gift, and pledge future investment." A Chinese variation of this pattern, he predicts, will almost certainly be on display when Trump eventually visits.
The approach could produce a few tangible agreements. Hass expects Trump to press Xi for greater purchases of U.S. exports and suggests the president might even welcome direct Chinese investment in sectors unrelated to national security, such as consumer product manufacturing. Trump will also seek Xi's support for unwinding conflicts in Ukraine and Iran. Although Beijing is unlikely to offer concrete commitments, Hass writes, "Xi's rhetoric will likely be supportive enough to placate Trump."
Previously: South Korea Confirms US May Relocate Air Defense Assets From Asia to Middle East.