A growing disconnect between Washington's hawkish elite consensus on China and the mood of ordinary Americans has helped push President Donald Trump toward a more conciliatory approach to Beijing, a Brookings Institution analyst has argued in a new Foreign Affairs essay, "Hvylya" reports.
Ryan Hass, a former NSC director for China and senior fellow at Brookings, cites a July survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in which respondents ranked avoiding a military conflict with China as the most important priority for the bilateral relationship. In the same survey, 53 percent agreed that the United States should "undertake friendly cooperation and engagement with China" to deal with its increasing power - up from 40 percent in 2024.
A separate November survey by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace produced an even more striking result: 62 percent of respondents reported that their lives "would not get worse if China were to surpass the United States in global power and influence." Hass interprets this as evidence that "a growing number of Americans appear more resigned to China's rise than in a mood to fight it."
The shift in public sentiment, Hass argues, is one of at least four factors that have motivated Trump's pivot from escalation to engagement. In the second half of 2025, the president shifted to praising Xi, lowering tariffs, and describing China as a peer of the United States. He deemphasized sensitive issues such as Chinese human rights abuses and cyberattacks in favor of dealmaking, even putting limits on U.S. semiconductor export controls on the table as a potential deal sweetener.
Despite these trends, Hass notes, elite preferences in Washington remain hawkish, and officials across the administration are eager to resume open strategic rivalry with Beijing. The gap between public opinion and the policy establishment may itself become a source of tension as the 2026 midterm election cycle heats up.