Even when the shooting stops, Russia and Ukraine will almost certainly slide into a prolonged shadow war of sabotage, assassinations, and hybrid attacks - and Ukraine's vast civilian drone industry gives it a decisive edge Moscow cannot easily counter. That assessment comes from a new Carnegie Endowment analysis, "Hvylya" reports, citing the paper by Eugene Rumer.

The line of contact with Ukraine will remain Russia's "most vulnerable frontier," Rumer writes. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers returning from war, people displaced from Russian-occupied territories, and civilians who survived bombing campaigns and lost family members "will not settle quietly for the new status quo with the aggressor."

Ukraine's "people's drone" industry can provide what Rumer describes as "a virtually endless supply of weapons" that in the hands of civilians - let alone experienced drone operators - will serve as instruments of revenge. Geographic proximity, shared language skills, and cultural familiarity between Ukrainians and Russians will make defending against acts of sabotage and assassination "very challenging for both countries' security establishments."

The mutual hostility will persist long after formal hostilities end. Russia and Ukraine, Rumer predicts, "are virtually certain to engage in a shadow war against each other" - two unreconciled neighbors locked in a state of permanent insecurity. Ukraine is also developing its own missile with a reported range of up to 3,000 km, further extending the threat to the Russian heartland.

For Europe, this ongoing confrontation offers a strategic opportunity. Rumer argues that a long-term European security assistance program for Ukraine can ensure that the country remains what GRU director Igor Kostyukov called "the main threat" to Russia, keeping Moscow's military resources pinned down. Support for Ukraine, the Carnegie analysis concludes, is therefore "the best resource Europe has to deal with the Russian threat to itself."

Also read: 110 Sabotage Acts in Three Years: PISM Exposes the Scale of Russia's Shadow War in Europe.