Russia's decision to recruit soldiers from prisons on a massive scale - an estimated 120,000 to 180,000 convicts since 2023 - has created a long-term social stability threat that will persist well beyond the end of the war in Ukraine, a leading defense analyst has warned.
Dara Massicot, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has detailed the risks in an analysis for Foreign Affairs, "Hvylya" reports.
To avoid a second mobilization drive, the Kremlin has "in practice dropped all standards for recruiting personnel," Massicot writes. Russian front lines in Ukraine are now manned by a growing number of convicts, soldiers with prewar criminal records, and men with drug and alcohol abuse issues. Some have already returned to Russia and committed new violent crimes or rejoined organized crime groups such as the Russian Mafia.
Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service put the problem bluntly in its annual threat assessment: "Russia's frontline units are largely composed of individuals who, under normal circumstances, should not be entrusted with weapons."
The reintegration challenge is compounded by Russia's own history. Nearly 35 percent of Soviet veterans from the Afghan War showed PTSD symptoms, and failures to reintegrate them contributed to 100,000 veterans ending up in prison by the early 2000s. A Levada Center survey from September 2025 found that 40 percent of Russians already expect an increase in crime and social conflict when soldiers return.
Russia currently has around 700,000 personnel involved in the war. Between 137,000 and 300,000 veterans have already been discharged, with the total veteran population likely to exceed one million after the conflict ends.
Also read: Syrskyi: Russian Losses Surpassed Recruitment in 2025.