Iran privately signaled to Saudi Arabia that an existential threat would trigger a scorched-earth response across the Gulf - a warning that has now materialized as Iranian missiles and drones hit targets throughout the kingdom and neighboring states.

As "Hvylya" reports, citing a Financial Times investigation, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had tried to keep Saudi Arabia out of the conflict. In January, he told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh would not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military action against Iran.

It made no difference. Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton who speaks with Prince Mohammed, said the crown prince "was hoping against hope that Saudi Arabia wouldn't be attacked." The Iranians, Haykel said, had made their position clear: "If we are existentially threatened it's going to be a scorched-earth policy, we're going to burn the whole region down to make the Americans pay a very heavy price." He added: "And that's exactly what they are doing."

Since the US-Israeli offensive began two weeks ago, Iran has struck American bases in Saudi Arabia, the US embassy in Riyadh, the Ras Tanura refinery and the vast Shaybah oilfield. The UAE, Bahrain and Qatar have endured even heavier attacks. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed by Iranian fire.

The diplomatic channel between Riyadh and Tehran still exists but has been downgraded. A person familiar with the matter said communication now runs through ambassadors rather than the senior-level contacts that had defined the detente. "The illusion has been eliminated that a good working relationship with Iran could be developed," the person said.

The relationship had been rebuilt through a Chinese-brokered deal in 2023, after a seven-year break. As recently as last year, Prince Mohammed's brother and defense minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, met then-supreme leader Khamenei in Tehran. The Islamic republic is now fighting what it considers an existential battle.

Also read: "More Dangerous Than Expected": The Hidden Threat a Weakened Iran Now Poses to the US.