Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's gamble on engagement with Iran has backfired spectacularly. The crown prince, who once compared Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Hitler and warned against "appeasement," spent years building a detente with Tehran - only to watch it collapse as Iranian missiles and drones now strike targets across his kingdom.
Since the US and Israel attacked Iran two weeks ago, the Islamic republic has hit American bases in Saudi Arabia, the US embassy in Riyadh, the Ras Tanura refinery and the Shaybah oilfield, "Hvylya" reports, citing the Financial Times.
The fallout has dealt a direct blow to Prince Mohammed's Vision 2030 plan to transform the kingdom's economy. Firas Maksad, managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, said the conflict was a major setback. "They were already missing their targets," he said. "Now they're also going to have to focus on other things. They're going to have to reorientate spending to defence. It's going to be a much longer timeline." Formula 1 has already cancelled its April races in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain because of the war.
Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, has warned of "catastrophic consequences" for the world economy if the war drags on, calling it "by far the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced."
A Saudi official sought to project calm, saying the situation was "almost business as usual" and that Riyadh remained less affected than the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar, which have endured heavier volleys. Saudi Arabia's Red Sea access also allows it to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, effectively closed by Iranian attacks.
Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University who speaks with Prince Mohammed, said the crown prince never wanted this outcome. "He wants stability and order, he doesn't want missiles and drones flying around," Haykel said. "He didn't want this at all."
Also read: The Oil Crisis Wall Street Ignores: Fuel Oil Prices Smash 2008 and 2022 Records.