Plans to finance European rearmament through common EU debt would trigger a political crisis inside Germany that could fuel support for extremist parties on both the left and right, "Hvylya" reports, citing a new Foreign Affairs analysis by Cambridge scholar Hugo Bromley.
The EU does not have an army and cannot spend money directly on defense. It can only subsidize member states through financial grants or, in theory, by issuing common debt. Under the current system, Bromley argued, the latter would amount to fiscal transfers from Germany and the Netherlands to France, Greece, Italy, and other high-spending countries - whose security priorities center on the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East, and North Africa rather than the Russian threat.
Brussels has already set a precedent that alarmed Berlin. In February, the European Commission decided to support Ukraine through common debt issuance rather than seized Russian assets - over Germany's explicit objections. For German voters already under economic strain, the direction of travel is clear.
The demands on Germany are stacking up simultaneously. Taxpayers are being asked to increase defense spending, purchase military equipment predominantly manufactured abroad, and subsidize other EU members' defense budgets. German manufacturing, meanwhile, is still reeling from the loss of cheap Russian energy and facing mounting Chinese competition. Bromley described each demand in isolation as "incendiary." Combined, he warned, they risk an explosive political backlash that could strengthen extremist parties across the spectrum.
The scholar recommended that defense spending commitments vary among EU and NATO members according to fiscal capacity and domestic political realities, rather than following a uniform percentage-based target across the bloc.
Also read: Russia Reaps Energy Windfall as Iran Burns, Carnegie Analysts Say.