Global oil reserves have provided a temporary buffer against the shock of the Strait of Hormuz closure, but they are a stopgap - not a solution, George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, has warned. If the waterway remains blocked for months, the world faces a fundamental energy crisis, he argued in a podcast reported by "Hvylya".
The International Energy Administration has already released significant reserves to stabilize markets. "We will have oil prices rising, but to some extent it is not going to be a fundamental breakdown of the global economic system so long as a solution is found to the Straits of Hormuz," Friedman said. Other producing countries have also increased output to partially compensate for the lost Persian Gulf supply.
But Friedman drew a sharp line between short-term relief and long-term viability. "In the long run - going out a month or two or three - we are really looking at a fundamental problem if the Straits of Hormuz are not opened," he said. The Persian Gulf remains one of the world's primary sources of energy, and no combination of reserves and alternative production can replace it indefinitely.
Reopening the strait is itself a military problem without a quick fix. The IRGC has positioned drones and missiles capable of striking ships from hundreds of miles away. Destroying these assets from the air addresses only the immediate threat - new launchers can be moved into position, restarting the cycle. Friedman suggested that securing the waterway permanently may require ground forces, which brings the conflict back to the one scenario Trump has fought hardest to avoid.
The oil crisis was never part of Washington's war plan. The original objective was narrow: neutralize Iran's nuclear program through targeted strikes. The IRGC's decision to blockade the strait transformed a regional military operation into a global economic emergency. "Oil is fundamental to the global economy," Friedman noted. "This is not a new thing in war - it is peculiar to this war."
Also read: The Hidden Casualties of the Iran War: Fertilizer Plants, Computer Chips and Copper Smelting.