If the IRGC maintains its defensive capability and continues blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the United States may be left with only one realistic path forward - negotiating peace, George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, has suggested. It is an outcome that would contradict every stated objective of the campaign, as reported by "Hvylya".
Asked directly what he would advise if called to the Oval Office, Friedman was blunt. "If my fears are correct - and they are just fears, they are not stating a fact - that the IRGC is capable of providing both a fundamental defensive capability at the same time as being able to for some period of time block the Straits of Hormuz, it would seem to me that the only thing that we could do is make peace," he said in a Geopolitical Futures podcast.
Friedman immediately acknowledged that peace "is going to be a very difficult thing to do, and for all sorts of reasons." The civilian government that might have negotiated a settlement no longer exists - the US destroyed it in the opening strikes. The IRGC, which now holds effective power, is an ideological military organization with no tradition of diplomatic engagement.
The alternative to peace is escalation: committing ground forces to defeat the IRGC across Iran's enormous territory. Friedman described this as "exactly what Trump promised not to do" - an extended war with American casualties and no clear exit timeline. Iran is one of the largest countries in the Middle East, and the IRGC is a professional, decentralized force deeply embedded in both the military and economic fabric of the country.
Two critical unknowns remain. First, whether the IRGC has enough weapons to sustain its resistance - the declining frequency of retaliatory strikes could indicate depletion or deliberate conservation. Second, whether the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened before the global economy faces a full-blown energy crisis. "These two things have to be answered. They link together, but it is not clear," Friedman said.
Also read: The JCPOA's Tragic What-If: How Killing the Deal Radicalized Iran Beyond Recognition.