The United States has spent years trying to shift the security burden in the Middle East onto regional allies - Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Turkey. The Iran war has exposed the limits of that strategy in the starkest possible terms, George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, has argued in a podcast cited by "Hvylya".
The Gulf states initially did not object to the US campaign. "These countries didn't mind it because they thought the attacks would be successful and they were fairly hostile to Iran," Friedman said. Once it became clear that the war would not end quickly, their stance shifted. The small, resource-rich Gulf nations simply do not have the military capacity to take on Iran. "The region can't take control of Iran. They don't have the force," Friedman noted.
Turkey presents a different case. Despite being hit by Iranian missiles - primarily targeting the American air base at Incirlik - Ankara has shown no inclination to enter the conflict. "The Turks, even though they have had two or three missiles fired at them, primarily at the Incirlik air base that the Americans have in Turkey, have no desire to take over this role," Friedman explained.
The burden-shifting failure leaves Washington in an uncomfortable position. The entire premise of Trump-era Middle East policy - that regional powers would handle regional problems - has been tested and found wanting. No ally has the military strength to confront the IRGC, and none has the political will to try, regardless of how the war turns out.
The regional dynamic has been further complicated by the IRGC's willingness to strike beyond the immediate conflict zone. Iran's civilian president reportedly promised not to attack Gulf states, but the IRGC has operated on its own terms, targeting US bases across the region. Friedman noted that the pattern of attacks has broadly shifted toward American military installations rather than sovereign Gulf state territory - a distinction that has given regional governments further reason to stay on the sidelines.
Also read: Iran Draws a Surprising Lesson From June That Reshapes Its Entire War Strategy.