Military analysts have outlined a series of factors that could slow Russia's advances in 2026 despite Moscow's preparations for an intensified summer campaign.
Ukraine's recent southeastern push, combined with a dramatic expansion of drone capabilities, has shifted the calculus for the year ahead, "Hvylya" reports, citing an assessment published by the Financial Times.
Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute pointed to Ukraine's February operation in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions as evidence. "There are weak points along the front line which can be exploited with proper planning and preparation," he said. Given the advances in drone warfare and Ukraine's demonstrated ability to mount offensive operations with limited infantry, "there are reasons to believe that Russia may have more difficulty advancing in 2026 than it did in 2025," Lee concluded.
Ukraine has turbocharged drone production, deployed ground robots to resupply front-line units and expanded its aerial strike capability to the 50-to-200-km "middle strike" range where Russia previously held the advantage. The Unmanned Systems Forces have reported a string of successful deep strikes in March, hitting air defense and logistics targets behind Russian lines.
Still, the challenges remain significant. Ukraine is emerging from its worst winter since the start of the full-scale invasion, and Russian forces have continued to edge closer to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk - the last major Ukrainian-held cities in Donbas. Moscow still demands Kyiv withdraw from the region as part of any eventual peace deal.
Yet despite these difficulties, Oleksiy Melnyk, a military analyst at the Razumkov Centre, argued that Ukraine's battlefield gains carry a message beyond tactics. "It's clear that Russian propaganda has been successful in creating this narrative that Russia is winning," he said. "The main objective of these messages is to show that it's not the case."
Also read: Petraeus Warns U.S. Military Faces "Catastrophic" Failure in Autonomous Warfare Race.