Strait of Hormuz Crisis Gives the US a Problem It Never Planned For, Friedman Warns

The IRGC's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has opened a second, unplanned front in the US war against Iran - one that threatens global energy supplies and may require the very ground deployment Washington sought to avoid, George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, has warned. The blockade has turned a conflict over nuclear weapons into an oil crisis, as "Hvylya" reported.

Friedman explained the dynamic in a Geopolitical Futures podcast. "The nuclear thing was the trigger for the war. It was assumed that it could be carried out in a surgical operation," he said. Instead, the IRGC responded by blocking the Persian Gulf - one of the world's primary sources of oil. "There is now two issues. One issue is uranium. The second issue is oil. And I do not think this was anticipated."

The IRGC has been able to threaten shipping from a considerable distance. "The IRGC is able to launch missiles or drones against ships coming in from fairly far out, about hundreds of miles," Friedman noted. This means that simply clearing the strait itself is not enough - the forces positioned along the coastline and deeper inland must also be neutralized.

Opening the strait presents a layered military problem. Existing drones and missile launchers must be destroyed, but new ones can be moved into position. Friedman argued that a lasting solution likely requires troops on the ground to hold the area - forces that would then be "subject to attack, to casualties, and presence for how long we do not know."

The blockade was a direct consequence of the intelligence failure that preceded the war. Washington did not understand that destroying Iran's civilian government would leave the IRGC fully capable of asymmetric retaliation. "The Straits of Hormuz, which we didn't anticipate because we didn't understand that the IRGC was a government in itself, and destroying the civilian government did not destroy in any way the ability of Iran to resist," Friedman said.

Also read: Strait of Hormuz Closure Hits Fuel Oil Harder Than Any Other Petroleum Product.