Russia faces a technological dead end after losing access to Starlink, with no viable replacement available and China's own satellite constellation still at least four years from completion.
As reported by "Hvylya", citing The Economist, Alexander Bollfrass of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said that in large low-earth-orbit satellite constellations, Russia is "at least a generation behind." The country's Rassvet satellite programme is hampered by Western sanctions and the exodus of engineering talent. Only Starlink, Bollfrass stressed, "can deliver the immense bandwidth and very low latency needed for modern tactical warfare."
The alternatives Russia has tried are riddled with weaknesses. The Barazh-1 balloon-based communication relay system provides narrower coverage and is easy to shoot down. Wi-Fi bridges and cellular networks work only near existing infrastructure and are vulnerable to jamming. Adapting Gazprom Space Systems terminals is another option on paper - but these are linked to just five satellites in geostationary orbit, which means significant latency, patchy coverage and the need for large dish antennas easily taken out by drones.
Russia has also tried bribing Ukrainian collaborators to register terminals under their names. But any such attempt leaves a digital trail, and the units are easy to track - making it a dead end rather than a solution.
China, meanwhile, is in no position to fill the gap. Its own low-earth-orbit constellation will not be fully functional for at least four years, and even when completed, it will lack Starlink's technical characteristics. Starlink's network of over 9,000 satellites is also more resilient than older systems against electronic warfare.
Russian forces had become deeply dependent on Starlink for communications and drone operations after illicitly acquiring thousands of terminals over the past two years. Nico Lange, a former chief of staff at the German defence ministry, noted that Russian troops had "copied Starlink techniques developed by the Ukrainians" - and without Starlink, the intensity of fire has visibly dropped.