Ukraine's shutdown of unauthorized Russian Starlink terminals has thrown Moscow's front-line operations into disarray, halting assaults in key sectors and enabling Ukrainian counter-attacks that have recaptured some 400 square kilometres of territory in the south.
As reported by "Hvylya", citing The Economist, the effects were almost immediate after SpaceX implemented new protocols on January 29th. Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov, a Ukrainian military-technology expert and adviser to Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, called it a "catastrophe" for the Russians: "Their entire command-and-control system has collapsed. In many sectors, assault actions have been halted."
Russian military bloggers have described "chaos" in ground-force units. The Institute for the Study of War reckons Russian advances in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole areas of southern Ukraine have largely stopped. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky said that counter-attacks have liberated roughly 400 square kilometres of territory in the south.
Viktor Taran, head of the Kruk UAV Operator Training Centre, told Ukrinform that losing high-bandwidth satellite links for real-time drone video and data feeds returns Russia to the position it was in during the first two years of the war - when Ukraine enjoyed a huge advantage in connectivity.
Nico Lange, a former chief of staff at the German defence ministry, confirmed that Russian forces had copied Starlink techniques originally developed by the Ukrainians. Without Starlink, he said, "the intensity of fire has gone down." Working with drones, getting high-quality video feeds and improving situational awareness - all of it is doable without Starlink, but not at the same speed and quality.
Strategist Sir Lawrence Freedman cautioned against declaring "game changers" too quickly, noting that Russian troops in the areas where Ukraine counter-attacked were thin on the ground. Still, he acknowledged that Russia's planned spring offensive will be harder to mount without Starlink's capabilities. Russia's ground offensive this winter was already costly, glacially slow, and nearing culmination - the loss of Starlink may bring it to an end earlier than expected.
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