The biggest winner of the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran may be neither country. It is the global economy as a whole - freed from the oil price volatility and geopolitical premium that Iran has generated for nearly half a century, according to the Wall Street Journal.
As "Hvylya" reports, citing a WSJ analysis by Greg Ip, without the persistent threat of Iranian supply disruptions, "the entire world will benefit from less volatility and a lower geopolitical premium embedded in oil's price."
The economic benefit to the United States specifically is "likely to be slight" - America is already a net petroleum exporter, and critical minerals and semiconductors pose a greater source of economic vulnerability than oil. But the geopolitical payoff is enormous: with Arab-Israeli relations warming and a potential normalization between Iran and the U.S., Middle East conflict may cease to be a constant threat to the global economy.
Ip notes that Iran has been "a near continuous source of disruption to oil markets" stretching from the 1979 revolution through the Iran-Iraq war and years of nuclear-related sanctions. Venezuela added its own layer of instability. Removing both as sources of volatility fundamentally changes the risk calculus for energy-dependent economies in Europe, Asia, and beyond.
China, paradoxically, may end up on the losing side. Both Iran and Venezuela were important sources of cheap, sanctioned oil to Beijing. Their potential shift toward Western alignment strips China of discount energy supplies. Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy noted this is one area where Russia "might benefit" - by capturing some of China's redirected demand.
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