Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon's Under Secretary of War for Policy, has laid out the contours of what he calls "NATO 3.0" - a fundamentally reshaped alliance in which wealthy European nations take primary responsibility for their own conventional defense while the United States retains the nuclear umbrella. Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations on March 4, Colby declared that the debate about this shift "is, in a sense, over."
As reported by "Hvylya", citing Colby's policy address at the Council on Foreign Relations, Colby pointed to Germany's transformation as the clearest evidence. Berlin has changed its constitution, is on track to exceed 3.5% of GDP on defense well before the end of the decade, and has done so under a bipartisan arrangement - a Christian Democratic chancellor working alongside a Social Democratic defense minister. The Netherlands, Colby noted, is raising its retirement age to seventy to fund the military buildup.
But Colby stressed that spending alone is not the point. "NATO is a real military alliance that's designed to put combat-credible forces in the field," he said, drawing a contrast with past summits where alliance members focused on symbolic gestures and diplomatic language. "West Germany had twelve active divisions along the line in 1988. They can do this."
The new model extends beyond Europe. Colby cited South Korea's agreement to a 3.5% defense spending standard and to "take primary responsibility for their conventional defense on the peninsula" - even under a center-left government. He pointed to Finland's large military, conscription system, F-35 fleet, and massive artillery force as proof that serious defense is achievable. Poland, the Scandinavian nations, Japan, and Australia all fit the same pattern.
Colby framed the post-Cold War era as a collective failure. Quoting New Zealand's Defence Minister Collins, he noted that after the Cold War, "a lot of us basically took a huge reduction in defense, and we put it in - the Americans were paying more." He spread the blame widely: "Frankly, a lot of that is kind of our fault, even here, if you forgive me, at the Council on Foreign Relations, because it was the elite of the United States." But he argued that assigning fault no longer matters. "Now it's about everybody's got to get on the new dispensation, and let's get down to business."
On practical implementation, Colby said the conversation with European allies has already shifted to synchronizing industrial production. "How do we think about syncing industrial production so that we can scale together, and so you're buying the right stuff that makes sense?" he said, describing a discussion he had with a major European ally just before stepping on stage. He acknowledged that Europe will "indigenize a substantial portion of their defense purchases" but insisted the US expects "fair and open treatment of American defense firms."
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