The UAE could have burned through between 20 and 40 percent of its entire ballistic missile interceptor stockpile in just the first 48 hours of the conflict with Iran, missile technology researcher Fabian Hoffmann has estimated. The calculation underscores the vulnerability of even well-armed Gulf states to sustained missile bombardment.

Writing in Missile Matters, Hoffmann notes that the UAE officially reported 165 Iranian ballistic missiles targeting its territory during the first two days of the war, as "Hvylya" reports. Assuming each missile was engaged with an average of 2.5 interceptors, this implies a total expenditure of roughly 410 interceptors. Since the U.S. also deploys Patriot fire units on Emirati territory, the UAE likely bore about half that burden - around 200 interceptors.

Depending on whether the UAE purchased 50 to 100 percent of the interceptors it was authorized to acquire from the United States, that expenditure would correspond to roughly 20 to 40 percent of its stockpile. "Concerns about the availability of ballistic missile defence interceptors were entirely justified," Hoffmann writes. Had the initial intensity continued, "Emirati interceptor inventories would likely have been severely depleted within a few days to a week."

The same logic applies to the other Gulf states, though the situation has improved significantly as Iranian missile launches have dropped sharply. The Gulf states - "with the possible exception of Bahrain, given its comparatively small arsenal" - now have reason to expect they can endure the conflict without approaching interceptor exhaustion, according to Hoffmann. Even Bahrain will likely remain in a manageable position assuming continued U.S. support.

The estimates are based on Hoffmann's analysis of authorized arms purchases by Gulf states in the years before the war, covering systems including Patriot PAC-3 MSE and PAC-2 GEM-T interceptors, as well as THAAD. He notes that while exact deployed numbers remain classified, the Gulf states have long considered the Iranian ballistic missile threat their primary concern and likely invested accordingly.

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