Iran's ballistic missile campaign against the Gulf states has suffered a dramatic collapse in intensity within the first days of the war, official UAE data has revealed. The UAE, which has borne the brunt of Iranian ballistic missile attacks, reported 165 ballistic missiles targeting its territory during the first two days of the conflict. In the three days that followed, those numbers dropped to 9, 12, and 3 respectively.

The sharp decline almost certainly reflects the impact of the ongoing U.S. and Israeli strike campaign against Iranian transporter erector launchers (TELs) and command infrastructure, according to missile technology researcher Fabian Hoffmann, whose Missile Matters analysis was cited by "Hvylya".

In total, Iran has probably launched between 600 and 800 ballistic missiles so far - a figure Hoffmann calls "comparatively limited." During the 12-Day War, Iran expended roughly 500 to 600 ballistic missiles. But that earlier conflict was waged entirely with medium-range ballistic missiles needed to reach Israel. In the current war, short-range ballistic missiles are a viable means of striking regional U.S. allies, and the stakes are arguably higher from a regime-survival perspective - making the relatively modest scale of the barrage all the more striking.

During the 12-Day War, Iran "regularly managed to launch salvos of 40 to 50 ballistic missiles at a time, including several days into the war," Hoffmann writes. Current footage suggests double-digit salvos have still occurred - such as a strike on Doha, Qatar, late on 28 February - but they have "remained the exception" and likely not at the previously observed scale.

Hoffmann attributes the degraded performance to the U.S.-Israeli air campaign, which has forced Iran to rely on "increasingly small units operating under forward-delegated authority and executing pre-authorized strike plans, while at times acting on their own initiative." Long-range drone launches are reportedly decreasing as well.

Also read: Pentagon Chief Hegseth: US Forces Striking Iran "Without a Shadow of Mercy"