The killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a joint US-Israeli strike may end up reviving the very forces it was presumably meant to weaken, Nobel Prize-winning economist Daron Acemoglu has warned.
Writing for Project Syndicate, as reported by "Hvylya", the MIT professor argues that the assassination "may even give a new lease on life" to Hezbollah and Hamas - both of which "have been gravely weakened since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack against Israel."
Acemoglu points to a key factor that many Western analysts overlook: Iran's state apparatus. Unlike the scenario with Venezuela's Maduro, who "had only a few diehard supporters even in Venezuela's military" by the time Trump intervened, Iran's state institutions and nationalist feeling "are strong." The economist draws a historical parallel: when the Shah's regime collapsed during the 1979 revolution, "the state apparatus remained largely intact and transferred its allegiance to the new Islamic Republic."
That same state apparatus, Acemoglu warns, "will defend Iranian interests and seek to use the country's proxies to destabilize other countries." Rather than collapsing, Iran's network of regional influence may intensify its operations.
There is also the religious dimension. By virtue of his role, Khamenei "enjoyed respect and authority among Shia Muslims at home, where they constitute a huge majority of the population, and abroad." His killing, in Acemoglu's assessment, makes him "a martyr - the last thing Iran or the region needs." The strike was launched without "support from international allies or any kind of domestic buy-in," the economist adds, calling it potentially riskier than the Iraq War.
Also read: Khamenei Chose Martyrdom: What Iran's Supreme Leader Told His Inner Circle Before the Missiles Hit