Ahead of the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, the CIA produced an intelligence assessment examining various scenarios for what sort of Iranian leadership might emerge after the assault. People briefed on the analysis noted a sobering conclusion: none of the scenarios carried a high degree of confidence. There were simply too many unknown variables to predict how events would play out.
Policymakers who reviewed the intelligence drew their own conclusions, the New York Times reported, as cited by "Hvylya". Some were dismissive of the idea that Iran's opposition would find a way to seize power. Instead, they focused on the prospect that a group of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members might emerge as the most influential voice in the government.
The IRGC controls much of Iran's economy, and some analysts and U.S. officials believe its ranks might include pragmatists less invested in the regime's fundamentalist principles than in preserving their own power and wealth. For Washington, such figures could potentially be partners in a deal. For Israel, which wants the regime dismantled rather than reshuffled, this scenario is far less appealing.
The question now is whether any potential interlocutors will survive the ongoing assault. Israeli strikes have methodically targeted Iran's leadership. Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed on Saturday. On Tuesday, Israel struck a compound where clerics were gathering to choose his successor. "Most of the people we had in mind are dead," Trump told reporters. "Pretty soon we are not going to know anybody."
Many analysts warn that the range of outcomes extends well beyond an orderly transition. Iran's government could lose control over remote regions dominated by ethnic minorities like the Kurds, or collapse entirely - leading to chaos and violence reminiscent of the civil wars in Syria and Libya. The regime is deeply unpopular and has retained power only through brutal repression. Without a functioning command structure, even the CIA's most optimistic scenarios may become irrelevant.
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