Both of Poland's core security doctrines - one oriented toward Washington, the other toward Brussels - have proven bankrupt, Polish strategic analyst Piotr Kulpa said. The collapse leaves Warsaw scrambling for a new approach at the worst possible moment, as the Iran war reshuffles global alliances and raises the risk of Russian aggression in Central Europe.
Speaking to "Hvylya" in an interview, Kulpa outlined the crisis in blunt terms. The pro-Washington camp, represented by figures like Kaczynski and presidential candidate Nawrocki, is losing public support as it becomes clear that the US is no longer a reliable security guarantor. "Their support has dropped because people can see this is the wrong line," Kulpa said.
But the alternative - relying on the EU and Brussels - is equally hollow. Europe lacks both the capability and the will to defend its eastern members, the analyst argued. "London, Paris and Berlin envision a Europe without countries like Ukraine, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania," Kulpa said, adding that such a Europe "would also negotiate with Russia" at Central Europe's expense.
The Polish army itself was built as an auxiliary force for the United States, Kulpa noted. Without American support, it lacks the vision, the long-range weapons, and the drone warfare capabilities needed for modern defense. "The eastern flank of NATO can only acquire these capabilities from Ukraine," he said.
Kulpa sees early signs of a potential third path. The current government may be learning to hedge its bets - with Nawrocki talking to Washington and Tusk talking to Brussels - while quietly deepening ties with Ukraine, Scandinavia, and the Baltic states. But the risk remains that pro-Russian forces like Germany's Alternative for Germany or France's Le Pen could come to power, pushing for deals with Moscow at Central Europe's expense.
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