Donald Trump has already lost four wars against China - in tariffs, technology, raw materials, and institutional influence - and the Iran operation risks becoming the fifth, Polish strategic analyst Piotr Kulpa said. With a scheduled meeting with Xi Jinping on March 31, the stakes could not be higher.

In an interview with "Hvylya", Kulpa framed the Iran war as fundamentally a war aimed at cutting China off from resources. The US operation against Venezuela sent China a clear signal: Washington controls the oceans, and without American consent, Beijing cannot secure its resource supply lines. "America detained a Russian tanker. It could have detained Chinese ones - it didn't, but it could have," Kulpa said. "The message was clear: the master of the seas is the United States."

The Iran war follows the same logic, but the analyst warned it may backfire. Both sides are now building up their infrastructure of aggression ahead of the March 31 summit. Kulpa dismissed the idea that Iran lacks support: "If you think Iran won't receive support from China, Russia, Belarus - primarily China - they will simply supply drones, rockets, everything that's needed." He pointed to Ukraine's recent ballistic missile launch by the FirePoint system as a benchmark, arguing that Iran, with its existing production base, can do the same or more.

If the Iran operation turns out to be "a hit-and-run - came in, fired, left, and nothing changed" - with oil continuing to trade freely in dollars, yuan or anything else, Kulpa warned this would amount to a collapse of American credibility. "We're in the fog of war and receiving positive information," he said. "But if the situation were truly so wonderful for the United States, there wouldn't be this kind of pressure on Europe for support."

The war also accelerates Russia's escape from Chinese dependency, the analyst noted. Rising energy prices give Moscow a financial cushion, while its newly elevated role as a de facto US partner against Iran boosts Russian leverage with Beijing. "Russia's strategic autonomy in its relationship with China increases," Kulpa said. The irony: a war meant to weaken China simultaneously strengthens Russia - the country Trump claims to want as a partner against Beijing.

Also read: Ready for War by 2027: Ferguson Warned That China Will Exploit America's Iran Distraction