Russia has definitively lost control over the Caucasus, a region it long considered its "soft underbelly." Instead of restoring the Soviet empire, Moscow has faced a strengthened Turkey and a successful strategic play by the United States in the region.
Sergiy Korsunsky, former Ukrainian Ambassador to Japan, made these remarks during a broadcast with political scientist Yuriy Romanenko. The diplomat shared information suggesting that Vladimir Putin had planned to restore the Soviet Union within its 1922 founding borders by 2022.
"Russia is delusional about a new Soviet Union. It was symbolic to hold such an event for the centenary of the USSR in 2022, after the capture of Kyiv, to restore it. Believe it or not, this conspiracy theory was told to me in all seriousness," Korsunsky shared.
According to him, the new union was intended to include Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, along with a so-called "Transcaucasian Republic" created through total control over Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
Instead of a Kremlin triumph, the result has been a total collapse of ambitions. While the Russian army remains bogged down in Ukraine, Washington and Ankara have seized the initiative in the Caucasus, facilitating the normalization of relations between Yerevan and Baku.
"The Americans sensed this at exactly the right time... Russia is simply no longer in a position to interfere. Just as they cannot do anything in Transnistria, they can no longer do anything in the Caucasus," the ambassador stated.
Yuriy Romanenko added that the U.S. has "effectively picked up the situation and is integrating it into the framework of its own game."
Korsunsky also highlighted an event that went largely unnoticed by the general public but represents a massive success for Western diplomacy and Turkey.
"The Kurdistan Workers' Party has laid down its arms... After 40 years of terrorist attacks, the PKK simply laid down its arms and announced it is no longer at war with Turkey—this is worth a great deal. I do not rule out that American efforts were involved there as well," the diplomat emphasized.
In summary, Korsunsky ironically referred to Putin as a "genius strategist" in quotation marks, noting that he achieved results diametrically opposed to his goals.
"He woke up Germany, he woke up Japan, he shook up all of NATO... This is yet another place where Putin has lost," the ambassador concluded.