Over the past year, alongside peace negotiations regarding Ukraine, another set of secret business talks has been underway. Citing Ukrainian intelligence, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia has promised the United States deals worth $12 trillion in exchange for lifting sanctions. According to informed sources, this package is effectively finalized, raising fears in Europe that Donald Trump may pressure Ukraine into painful concessions in pursuit of "mythical gold."
How the Kremlin "Sells" the Deal to Trump
According to The Economist, the Russian Security Council prepared a specific manual on how to present the "Greatest Deal" to the American president even before his meeting with Putin. The negotiation process is led by Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, who has reportedly met with Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, at least nine times since last April. Individuals close to the Trump family are allegedly discussing the acquisition of stakes in Russian energy assets.
The proposals Moscow has put on the table include Arctic oil and gas, rare-earth mines, a nuclear-powered data center, and even a tunnel under the Bering Strait. Additionally, during his meeting with Trump, Putin reportedly offered to return ExxonMobil assets worth approximately $5 billion, which were seized by Russia in 2022.
What is Actually at Stake
The $12 trillion figure—roughly six times Russia's annual GDP—is an obvious hyperbole designed to impress Trump. Analysts who interviewed dozens of former officials, intelligence officers, oil executives, and corporate insiders reached a sobering conclusion for the White House: the actual value of accessible wealth is a tiny fraction of what has been promised.
Theoretically, the potential is vast. Western Siberia could hold up to 12 billion barrels of oil and gas, and the Arctic nearly 50 billion barrels, though development might only be feasible starting in the 2030s. Rosneft's flagship "Vostok Oil" project is valued at $160 billion, promising up to 2 million barrels per day. The Arctic is also rich in rare-earth metals, with estimated reserves of 29 million tons—equivalent to 74 years of global production.
Why It Is a Trap
However, the reality is far more mundane. Western nations have imposed nearly 23,000 sanctions against Russia, most of which Trump cannot lift unilaterally. Europe remains staunchly opposed to easing restrictions. The historical precedent of Iran is telling: even after sanctions were partially lifted in 2016, most Western companies never returned.
The most severe issue is Russia's business climate. Even before the war, foreign companies faced constant risks of politically motivated prosecution. The situation has since deteriorated; tax authorities act predatorily, courts are corrupt, and contracts are not worth the paper they are written on. For instance, the local company that bought the McDonald’s franchise has already signaled it would demand additional payments before considering any return of rights.
Equally serious is the threat of renewed conflict. A peace agreement that leaves Ukraine defenseless virtually guarantees a new Russian invasion, which would lead to the immediate reinstatement of sanctions and the freezing or confiscation of Western investments once again.
China Already Leads the Way
While Washington negotiates, Beijing is systematically filling the vacuum. In 2024, China's share of Russian goods imports reached 57%, up from 23% before the war. Furthermore, 30% of Russian trade is now denominated in yuan. Niches abandoned by European and American brands have been occupied by Chinese competitors. Meanwhile, Russia is flooded with "parallel" imports of Western goods via China and the Gulf states, making the return of American companies even less profitable.
The Verdict: Real Figures vs. Kremlin Promises
Even under the most optimistic scenario—if trade with Russia returns to 2021 levels and American companies capture half the market—annual turnover (not profit) would be approximately $340 billion. Maintaining such a flow for the decades required to approach $12 trillion is unrealistic.
While individuals close to the White House might secure lucrative personal gains—such as board seats or revenue from pipelines—Russia will not become an El Dorado for the rest of America. Instead, reviving its economy would create conditions for the next war, leaving China with an even more capable ally. Analysts conclude that any president acting in the interest of the United States must view Putin’s offer with cold skepticism—and reject it.